11 - Operations and Sustainment
AN EMPIRICAL AND CUSTOMISABLE FLEET RENEWAL MODEL FOR PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS USING OPEN-ACCESS DATA
P. Viry¹, T. Planès¹, S. Delbecq¹, L. Joly, ISAE-SUPAERO, Université de Toulouse, France; A. Salgas¹; ¹Fédération ENAC ISAE-SUPAERO ONERA, Université de Toulouse, France
Air transport decarbonisation requires rapid and radical action to be taken. These include reducing operationsrninefficiency, switching to alternative low-carbon energies and accelerating aircraft efficiency improvement. Thernlatter results from improvements at the aircraft level but also from the renewal of the current fleet by the mostrnrecent aircraft types. This paper presents an updated and more accurate fleet renewal model to assess theserneffects in a prospective scenarios simulator, AeroMAPS. To do so, a fleet database is used alongside an aircraftrnoperating cost model to train the updated fleet model so that it captures the logic behind the renewal decisionsrnof airlines. The model is evaluated and used on an illustrative European network to test the effect of differentrnpolicies (carbon taxes, blending mandates) on the fleet composition and subsequent CO2 emissions.