10 - Safety and Security
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING IN AIRCRAFT EMERGENCY EVACUATION SIMULATION
D.B. Ferrari¹, R. Giarola¹, L.C.de C. Santos, EMBRAER, Brazil; ¹Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, Brazil
Certification requires a ninety-seconds full cabin evacuation with half operational exits. The use of simulation offers: low cost, safety, and possibility of representing various evacuation scenarios. The present work describes a simulation-based probabilistic forecasting model allowing a more reliable representation of real evacuation situations than previously reported approaches.