26th Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences
including the 8th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference
14 - 19 September 2008, Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Paper ICAS 2008-1.3.4

LONG TERM AIRCRAFT PROJECT AND TECHNOLOGY EVALUATION UNDER THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SCENARIOS

M. Meussen, M. Trunk*, R. Henke**
AIRBUS S.A.S., France; *ARTS GmbH, France; **RWTH Aachen, Germany

Keywords: technology, evaluation, scenarios

The paper describes the implementation the uncertainties of economic boundary conditions from alternative scenarios with a Monte-Carlo-Method into an industrial technology evaluation method. As the resulting distributions show a wide, overlapping scatter, limitations of the methods, opportunities for development and interpretation are discussed.

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