26th Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences
including the 8th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference
14 - 19 September 2008, Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Paper ICAS 2008-1.8.3

UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION FOR CAPABILITY-BASED SYSTEMS-OF-SYSTEMS DESIGN

P. T. Biltgen
Georgia Institute of Technology, USA

Keywords: Systems-of-Systems, Neural Networks, Uncertainty, Design-as-a-Discipline

This paper reviews methods for parametric uncertainty quantification and highlights a number of challenges in the extension of these methods to systems-of-systems analysis. The author demonstrates the sensitivity of multidimensional surrogate models to probabilistic assumptions and identifies sources of model uncertainty endemic to capability-based analysis.

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