26th Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences
including the 8th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference
14 - 19 September 2008, Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Paper ICAS 2008-9.3.1

A PROGNOSTIC METHOD TO IDENTIFY HAZARDS FOR FUTURE AVIATION CONCEPTS

B. E. Smith, H. H. de Jong*, M. H. C. Everdij**
NASA, USA; *DFS, Germany; **NLR, Netherlands

Keywords: prognostic hazard identification method, unimaginable hazards, FAST

This paper presents an integrated approach to prognostic safety assessments employing structured brainstorming to uncover functionally unimaginable hazards and systematic analyses of the effects of predicted changes that will impact aviation. Application of the method will ensure that safety research portfolios relevant to emerging future safety risks.

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