22nd Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, Harrogate, UK, 28 August - 1st September, 2000
Paper ICAS 2000-5.10.2

SCENARIO BASED AIRCRAFT DESIGN EVALUATION

A. Strohmayer, D. Schmitt
Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Germany

Keywords: scenario planning, aircraft design, design evaluation

It is becoming more and more difficult to work out future strategies for the aerospace industry characterized by long product development cycles in a very complex environment with considerable uncertainties about the development of relevant factors. The application of scenario planning in the aircraft design process can help on the one hand to get a useful set of requirements and on the other hand to evaluate design concepts in different scenarios and markets. This paper will focus mainly on the scenario based aircraft design evaluation. Today’s standard direct operating cost (DOC) methods can no longer be the one and only means to determine the competitiveness of a new project. Instead, the manufacturer has to prove, that a new aircraft concept reflects the transportation needs of the coming decades. Therefore, the importance of added value factors, i.e. factors other than economics or commonality, in an aircraft design evaluation process is increasing. These factors and their future development can be considered in a scenario process. A method will be shown, how the design parameters and their relative significance in different scenarios are connected in a valuation approach.

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