22nd Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, Harrogate, UK, 28 August - 1st September, 2000
Paper ICAS 2000-6.5.2

PROBABILISTIC WAKE VORTEX SAFETY ASSESSMENT TO EVALUATE SEPARATION DISTANCES FOR ATM OPERATIONS

L. J. P. Speijker, J. Kos, H. A. P. Blom, G. B. van Baren
National Aerospace Laboratory NLR, the Netherlands

Keywords: wake vortex evolution, wake encounter, safety assessment, separation distances, risk based policies, single runway approach, air traffic management

The steady increase in air traffic imposes a need for enhanced airport capacity, and the desire to safely reduce existing separation minima. An important limiting factor in establishing required separation minima is wake vortex induced risk. A novel probabilistic methodology is under development for the assessment of wake vortex induced accident risk. The methodology is integrated within a stochastic framework. Three probabilistic sub models are being used: • Wake vortex evolution model; • Wake encounter model; • Flight path evolution model. This probabilistic methodology can be used for an assessment of wake vortex safety of different ATM concepts or procedures. It provides a tool to evaluate separation distances for the current practice, and for promising new ATM concepts which may enable a safe reduction of current separation minima. Numerical results can be fed back to ATM designers, who can use these results to redesign or improve their proposed ATM concept. The safety management approach to regulate and control wake vortex induced risk can, and should, be based on an assessment of accident risk probabilities, followed by a comparison with risk criteria. Some guidelines for the development of a risk criteria framework, to be agreed upon by involved interest groups, are given. This paper outlines the probabilistic methodology, and illustrates its initial application for the single runway approach under current flight regulations 1 Introduction

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