22nd Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, Harrogate, UK, 28 August - 1st September, 2000
Paper ICAS 2000-1.1.1 (IL)
2020 VISION : PROSPECTS FOR LARGE CIVIL AIRCRAFT PROPULSION
N. T. Birch
Rolls-Royce plc, Derby, UK
Keywords: civil aircraft, propulsion, aero-engine
This paper will examine the prospects for
propulsion systems for large civil transport
aircraft over the next 2 decades, to the year
2020. This period is likely to see the market
drivers for future propulsion system
development change from the more traditional
ones of fuel consumption and weight, to also
include those that affect the impact of civil
aviation on the environment, and the continuing
pressure to reduce the cost of ownership of civil
engines, namely, product unit cost, maintenance
costs and reliability. 50 years of civil aeroengine
development are reviewed and trends
showing the likely limits to the main engine
performance parameters are provided. The
paper concludes with consideration of a number
of new civil aircraft and engine concepts that
may emerge in the next 20 years
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